In America, the Democrats regained control of the House. A quarter of the government is shut down while they and Trump engage in a battle of wills over whether the border wall will be funded. Meanwhile, newly elected "democratic socialists" propose a Green New Deal (Ocasio-Cortez) and impeachment now (Tlaib). In Europe, the gilets jaunes took to the streets in France every weekend, Brexit negotiations kept limping along, and the AfD was the only major German party not to have its leaders doxxed in a big Twitter leak.
China found its phone manufacturer Huawei ("Chinese achievement"), which leads the world in 5G technology, attacked in the West as a security risk. CFO and founder's daughter Meng Wanzhou was detained in Canada for trading with Iran, quantum genius and venture capitalist Zhang Shoucheng was declared dead from suicide, and a Dutch supplier of chip-etching technology had a factory gutted by fire, all within a few days.
In India, Stalin and Gandhi united to beat Modi in three state elections (that's Tamil politician M.K. Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi). But BJP stalwart Subramaniam Swamy still thinks they can win nationally in May, if they emphasize Hindutva (Ayodhya temple) and anti-corruption. Look for UP chief minister "Yogi" to be a star campaigner.
Next door in prospering Bangladesh (clothing supplier to the world), Hasina's Awami League crushed the opposition at the polls, after first crushing them in the courts. Pakistan jailed former PM Nawaz Sharif - he joins Brazil's Lula and Bangladesh's Khaleda Zia as an imprisoned former leader - who just five years ago presided over Pakistan's embrace of China's new silk road. But no doubt China can do business with Imran too, in a way concordant with the 11 priorities of his New Pakistan.
In the Middle East, Turkey and Syria are on the mend, while Saudi Arabia and Iran have been weakened (by the Khashoggi affair, by the return of American sanctions); perhaps that's why there are now peace talks about Yemen. Qatar left OPEC; it would be more significant if Iran left too. The commander of the US fifth fleet, which would control any blockade of Iran, was found dead in his Bahrain residence; and Mad Dog Mattis quit as Pentagon chief, perhaps because Trump wants America out of Afghanistan as well as out of Syria.
Brazil and Mexico traded places - Mexico got a left populist (Amlo), Brazil got a right populist (Bolsonaro). Bolsonaro has been compared to the Philippines' Duterte, but he has to work with the legislature, which is also full of new faces. For Brazilians, whether or not they specifically view the military era as a golden age, the important thing is that they have a fresh start, with which to tackle crime and corruption.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Wetwork
There are other things happening - #MeToo in India, Ethiopia's reform cabinet, Pakistan going to the IMF, the Kavanaugh confirmation in America, Bolsonaro on the brink of becoming president of Brazil - but I decided to try to say something about the apparent hit job, in which media figure Jamal Khashoggi vanished after entering the Saudi embassy in Turkey. Unnamed Turkish sources have told the world that a Saudi hit squad traveled to Turkey in advance, tortured and killed Khashoggi inside the embassy, and then smuggled his body parts out of the country in diplomatic bags.
Saudi Arabia is the hub around which many things turn. It is the home of Al Haramain, the two cities of Mecca and Medina, and therefore the destination of the hajj, the pilgrimage that every Muslim must perform at least once. It is the world's most important oil producer, and the anchor of the "petrodollar" system which replaced the gold standard under Nixon. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, in which the Muslim Brotherhood strove for power in the Arab republics, only to be beaten down again, Saudi Arabia seems to have the public allegiance of all the Sunni Arab countries, with the exception of Qatar, which hosts Al Jazeera. The crown prince's radical plans to modernize the country, have become the hope of various forces who want to see a strong and independent Sunni world, and/or one that is friendly to the west and Israel.
When Obama's America began reaching out to Iran, and especially after Russia intervened in Syria, the Saudis apparently decided that they had to take their security into their own hands. They launched the war in Yemen, which, I am inclined to believe, is about halting Iranian-supported subversion which, unchecked, would spread into Saudi Arabia itself, and especially to the Shia regions where much of the oil lies. Saudi Arabia also assembled its "Sunni NATO", directed foremost against Iran, but also against Sunni radicals like Al Qaeda and its spinoff, Islamic State. It had already been de-facto occupying Bahrain since the Arab spring; now it launched a feud with Qatar. The Saudi royals embraced Trump's anti-Iran agenda, with Trump's son-in-law Kushner becoming best friends with King Salman's son Mohammed.
Many reprehensible deeds are committed in this world, by the powerful, in the name of the state; and they usually get away with it. Some such deeds are committed in public - e.g. in war - but others are meant to be covert, or at least deniable. When the latter are exposed, it spells trouble, even if they are denied. Russia in recent years has had to deny, not just a role in passing hacked Democratic Party emails to Wikileaks, but other events in which lives were lost: the shoot-down of a Malaysian passenger plane overflying the Ukrainian civil war, and the attempt to poison a defector living in Britain.
Now we apparently have a barbaric act committed by a western ally, that was meant to be secret, but which has been publicly exposed - by elements in the intelligence service of Turkey, nominally also a western ally, but which has turned east in the aftermath of the collapse of the Syrian resistance, the failed Gulenist coup of 2016, and the threat of Kurdish separatism. In this exposure I also see the hand of the remaining Obama globalists, liberals still immensely powerful in America but seeking relevance in a Middle East divided between Trump and Putin.
The CIA long cultivated ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, to a degree that we may never know, but which probably reached its apogee under Obama. That suited Turkey, but not Saudi Arabia, opposed as it is to all ideological currents that might threaten the monarchy, whether they be atheist communists, revivers of the caliphate, or Islamist democrats. Khashoggi, cut off from the usual princely politics in the era of Mohammed bin Salman's one-man show, threw in his lot with some opposition axis that was brewing in Turkey and America, and paid the price. But his backers in Turkey, perhaps still smarting from the Brotherhood's latest defeat, made sure that he could still serve the cause in death.
And so now everyone who has something invested in the continued survival of Saudi Arabia as we know it - and that encompasses many countries - has to decide what to do about this unwelcome fact. In a sense, we have been here before: Iraq's Saddam Hussein was supposed to be the bulwark against revolutionary Iran, seizing control of the Gulf. It was only when, Iran having agreed to a ceasefire, he set about building a revolutionary Arab-nationalist power, that his crimes became a liability for the west.
Saddam's continued resistance eventually led to America openly occupying Iraq. Obama's dalliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, and acquiescence to Erdogan's agenda of a new Sunni Islamist bloc, was no doubt an attempt to construct a new regional order that would still be friendly to America. But with the Shia in control of Iraq, and the Islamic State beaten down by Russia and Iran, Saudi Arabia has been stripped of buffer states. It might be able to call upon Pakistan for a nuclear umbrella, but Pakistan's own orientation has become increasingly eastern. So the Saudis had to become militant about their own survival. Thus the radicalism of the crown prince. And Trump went all in on this latest Saudi transformation - he got along better with the leaders of the Sunni NATO, than he did with the leaders of the original NATO - just as all American presidents, at least since Nixon, have stuck with the Saudis through thick and thin; even after 9/11.
Two futures can be seen. In one, Saudi Arabia survives and develops, a lot like Islamic State but not engaged in jihad against the west, and becomes one hub of a Sunni economic region stretching from Africa to Indonesia. In another, the Yemeni rebels are merely the harbinger of a revolt that will reach Mecca itself; at which point the viability of America's attempts to develop a new energy economy, based on fracking and electric cars, will truly be put to the test. And the true future is probably some unimaginable third way that will partake of elements of both scenarios.
Saudi Arabia is the hub around which many things turn. It is the home of Al Haramain, the two cities of Mecca and Medina, and therefore the destination of the hajj, the pilgrimage that every Muslim must perform at least once. It is the world's most important oil producer, and the anchor of the "petrodollar" system which replaced the gold standard under Nixon. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, in which the Muslim Brotherhood strove for power in the Arab republics, only to be beaten down again, Saudi Arabia seems to have the public allegiance of all the Sunni Arab countries, with the exception of Qatar, which hosts Al Jazeera. The crown prince's radical plans to modernize the country, have become the hope of various forces who want to see a strong and independent Sunni world, and/or one that is friendly to the west and Israel.
When Obama's America began reaching out to Iran, and especially after Russia intervened in Syria, the Saudis apparently decided that they had to take their security into their own hands. They launched the war in Yemen, which, I am inclined to believe, is about halting Iranian-supported subversion which, unchecked, would spread into Saudi Arabia itself, and especially to the Shia regions where much of the oil lies. Saudi Arabia also assembled its "Sunni NATO", directed foremost against Iran, but also against Sunni radicals like Al Qaeda and its spinoff, Islamic State. It had already been de-facto occupying Bahrain since the Arab spring; now it launched a feud with Qatar. The Saudi royals embraced Trump's anti-Iran agenda, with Trump's son-in-law Kushner becoming best friends with King Salman's son Mohammed.
Many reprehensible deeds are committed in this world, by the powerful, in the name of the state; and they usually get away with it. Some such deeds are committed in public - e.g. in war - but others are meant to be covert, or at least deniable. When the latter are exposed, it spells trouble, even if they are denied. Russia in recent years has had to deny, not just a role in passing hacked Democratic Party emails to Wikileaks, but other events in which lives were lost: the shoot-down of a Malaysian passenger plane overflying the Ukrainian civil war, and the attempt to poison a defector living in Britain.
Now we apparently have a barbaric act committed by a western ally, that was meant to be secret, but which has been publicly exposed - by elements in the intelligence service of Turkey, nominally also a western ally, but which has turned east in the aftermath of the collapse of the Syrian resistance, the failed Gulenist coup of 2016, and the threat of Kurdish separatism. In this exposure I also see the hand of the remaining Obama globalists, liberals still immensely powerful in America but seeking relevance in a Middle East divided between Trump and Putin.
The CIA long cultivated ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, to a degree that we may never know, but which probably reached its apogee under Obama. That suited Turkey, but not Saudi Arabia, opposed as it is to all ideological currents that might threaten the monarchy, whether they be atheist communists, revivers of the caliphate, or Islamist democrats. Khashoggi, cut off from the usual princely politics in the era of Mohammed bin Salman's one-man show, threw in his lot with some opposition axis that was brewing in Turkey and America, and paid the price. But his backers in Turkey, perhaps still smarting from the Brotherhood's latest defeat, made sure that he could still serve the cause in death.
And so now everyone who has something invested in the continued survival of Saudi Arabia as we know it - and that encompasses many countries - has to decide what to do about this unwelcome fact. In a sense, we have been here before: Iraq's Saddam Hussein was supposed to be the bulwark against revolutionary Iran, seizing control of the Gulf. It was only when, Iran having agreed to a ceasefire, he set about building a revolutionary Arab-nationalist power, that his crimes became a liability for the west.
Saddam's continued resistance eventually led to America openly occupying Iraq. Obama's dalliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, and acquiescence to Erdogan's agenda of a new Sunni Islamist bloc, was no doubt an attempt to construct a new regional order that would still be friendly to America. But with the Shia in control of Iraq, and the Islamic State beaten down by Russia and Iran, Saudi Arabia has been stripped of buffer states. It might be able to call upon Pakistan for a nuclear umbrella, but Pakistan's own orientation has become increasingly eastern. So the Saudis had to become militant about their own survival. Thus the radicalism of the crown prince. And Trump went all in on this latest Saudi transformation - he got along better with the leaders of the Sunni NATO, than he did with the leaders of the original NATO - just as all American presidents, at least since Nixon, have stuck with the Saudis through thick and thin; even after 9/11.
Two futures can be seen. In one, Saudi Arabia survives and develops, a lot like Islamic State but not engaged in jihad against the west, and becomes one hub of a Sunni economic region stretching from Africa to Indonesia. In another, the Yemeni rebels are merely the harbinger of a revolt that will reach Mecca itself; at which point the viability of America's attempts to develop a new energy economy, based on fracking and electric cars, will truly be put to the test. And the true future is probably some unimaginable third way that will partake of elements of both scenarios.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Nations great and small
I had hoped that the Trump presidency might bring economic cooperation between China, Russia, and America, along the lines suggested by Carter Page in his Moscow seminar. But the American deep state nixed any possibility of cooperation with Russia; and despite his professed friendship with Xi, Trump has made good on his threat to deploy tariffs against China and a dozen other countries; and so the Trump world order is looking a lot like that of Obama's second term, with Russia and China remaining unmoved by American entreaties and threats, the twin pillars of an alternative world system.
But America remains far from alone, and I don't just mean NATO and the G-7. India and, to a lesser extent, the Sunni bloc assembled by Saudi Arabia, remain aligned more with America than with Russia and China, for their own reasons. Saudi Arabia has put itself in the same trench as Israel, against Iranian revolutionism; and India sees America as an ally to prevent encirclement by China.
I have asked myself what other revolutionary acts Trump might yet perform. He could weaponize the Qanon movement and truly go after the Clintons, but that would be best saved for the impeachment endgame of the Mueller investigation. And, he could overturn the western financial order: go after the Fed, or default on American debt. But for now the focus remains trade: we are promised a new NAFTA by the end of September, and there is no end in sight for the trade war with China.
Meanwhile, domestic affairs continue, everywhere. In China, Jack Ma retired as chairman of Alibaba (as India's Ambani passed him as the richest man in Asia), and Tencent complained that the enormous gaming industry would be held back by a new licensing process. In the west, there has been a media blitz about China's unfolding "social credit" system, and enhanced surveillance and ideological education in the Uyghur state of Xinjiang. (But there is rarely an attempt to objectively compare China's panopticon to our own.)
In Russia, a strategic plan to organize the country in a dozen economic macro-regions was revived. In India, while floods ravaged Kerala, Modi announced the Gaganyaan mission to put an Indian in space by 2022. This month, the Indian Supreme Court also ruled that the criminalization of homosexuality is unconstitutional, almost a decade after the Delhi High Court first did so.
Greece joined China's Belt and Road Initiative. Sweden's anti-immigration party grew in strength at elections, but perhaps didn't obtain the balance of power. Turkey was beset with American economic warfare directed at its currency, and protested Russian indifference as Syria prepared to take back the last jihadi stronghold, Idlib. Austria hosted a Putin-Merkel pipeline meeting, and fought opaque struggles in the western spy world to assert its populist, look-east policies.
Australia had its fourth party-room coup against a sitting prime minister in ten years. In crime-ridden Brazil, with presidential elections a month away and Lula barred from running, law-and-order Bolsonaro led the polls, but was stabbed by a communist activist.
In America, Apple vied with Amazon for most valuable company, and Jeff Bezos's personal wealth continued into the stratosphere, as money poured into Amazon stocks. Even when the inevitable "correction" comes, with stocks falling back in value, Bezos will probably remain the richest man on earth for some time.
But America remains far from alone, and I don't just mean NATO and the G-7. India and, to a lesser extent, the Sunni bloc assembled by Saudi Arabia, remain aligned more with America than with Russia and China, for their own reasons. Saudi Arabia has put itself in the same trench as Israel, against Iranian revolutionism; and India sees America as an ally to prevent encirclement by China.
I have asked myself what other revolutionary acts Trump might yet perform. He could weaponize the Qanon movement and truly go after the Clintons, but that would be best saved for the impeachment endgame of the Mueller investigation. And, he could overturn the western financial order: go after the Fed, or default on American debt. But for now the focus remains trade: we are promised a new NAFTA by the end of September, and there is no end in sight for the trade war with China.
Meanwhile, domestic affairs continue, everywhere. In China, Jack Ma retired as chairman of Alibaba (as India's Ambani passed him as the richest man in Asia), and Tencent complained that the enormous gaming industry would be held back by a new licensing process. In the west, there has been a media blitz about China's unfolding "social credit" system, and enhanced surveillance and ideological education in the Uyghur state of Xinjiang. (But there is rarely an attempt to objectively compare China's panopticon to our own.)
In Russia, a strategic plan to organize the country in a dozen economic macro-regions was revived. In India, while floods ravaged Kerala, Modi announced the Gaganyaan mission to put an Indian in space by 2022. This month, the Indian Supreme Court also ruled that the criminalization of homosexuality is unconstitutional, almost a decade after the Delhi High Court first did so.
Greece joined China's Belt and Road Initiative. Sweden's anti-immigration party grew in strength at elections, but perhaps didn't obtain the balance of power. Turkey was beset with American economic warfare directed at its currency, and protested Russian indifference as Syria prepared to take back the last jihadi stronghold, Idlib. Austria hosted a Putin-Merkel pipeline meeting, and fought opaque struggles in the western spy world to assert its populist, look-east policies.
Australia had its fourth party-room coup against a sitting prime minister in ten years. In crime-ridden Brazil, with presidential elections a month away and Lula barred from running, law-and-order Bolsonaro led the polls, but was stabbed by a communist activist.
In America, Apple vied with Amazon for most valuable company, and Jeff Bezos's personal wealth continued into the stratosphere, as money poured into Amazon stocks. Even when the inevitable "correction" comes, with stocks falling back in value, Bezos will probably remain the richest man on earth for some time.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
New Pakistan
I have to regard the victory of Imran Khan in Pakistan's elections as the event of the month. Khan is like Trump in that he is a celebrity turned politician, who beat two traditional political dynasties (Sharif and Bhutto); though unlike Trump, he wasn't also fighting against factions of the "deep state". At the crossroads between Iran and the Gulf Arabs, China and India, Afghanistan and America; possessor of the Islamic bomb (and a former proliferator), and the country where Osama bin Laden spent his last years in hiding; and with a population of 200 million that is 98% Muslim... Imran's Pakistan is potentially one of the key ingredients in a sovereign Muslim bloc of nations, should such an alliance truly take shape.
The month also saw Trump meet Putin in Europe. At the same time, Obama was in Africa to honor Mandela; and shortly afterwards, Putin, Xi, and Modi came to town (and also Brazilian president Temer) for a BRICS meeting whose themes included Africa and the "fourth industrial revolution". Elsewhere in Africa, Ethiopia continues its radical reform, Nigeria remains divided by religion, and Zimbabwe had its first post-Mugabe election.
Trump remains a political whirlwind, presiding over economic feuds with China and the EU, and fending off critics and scandals with his tweets, while preparing for the mid-term elections in November, and also preparing to escalate pressure on Iran. America wants to drive Iranian oil off the international market by sanctioning anyone who buys it; Iran in turn could make it hard for Saudi oil to get out, by further arming its allies in Yemen, who have already carried out little-reported missile attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The month also saw Trump meet Putin in Europe. At the same time, Obama was in Africa to honor Mandela; and shortly afterwards, Putin, Xi, and Modi came to town (and also Brazilian president Temer) for a BRICS meeting whose themes included Africa and the "fourth industrial revolution". Elsewhere in Africa, Ethiopia continues its radical reform, Nigeria remains divided by religion, and Zimbabwe had its first post-Mugabe election.
Trump remains a political whirlwind, presiding over economic feuds with China and the EU, and fending off critics and scandals with his tweets, while preparing for the mid-term elections in November, and also preparing to escalate pressure on Iran. America wants to drive Iranian oil off the international market by sanctioning anyone who buys it; Iran in turn could make it hard for Saudi oil to get out, by further arming its allies in Yemen, who have already carried out little-reported missile attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Friday, July 6, 2018
Supreme truth
For many years, I have thought that Aum Shinrikyo, or at least its terrorist wing, was controlled by North Korea - and that this was known to the Japanese and American governments. Now, after many years in prison in Japan, the remaining leadership of Aum has been executed. That this finally happened in the new age of amity with North Korea is probably not a coincidence.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
What's next: Trump meets Putin?
The meeting between Trump and Kim has multiple potential meanings. It could be a prelude to increased American detachment from East Asia. Trump may wish to negotiate with Putin and Xi, over the heads of South Korea and Japan, in order to produce a new regional equilibrium of decreased militarization and increased economic integration.
Then there is the new hardline American approach to Iran. For now, Europe, China, and India are keen to preserve the economic ties with Iran that the Obama deal legitimated; but America is likely to sanction entities in those countries, that trade with elements of the Iranian military power structure. Trump's willingness to meet with Kim tells the Iranians that he is willing to make a new deal; but he may also be trying to remove North Korea as a source of military supplies and knowledge.
Finally, this meeting with Kim may be but a prelude to a far more important meeting with Putin, perhaps six or more months from now, in order to de-escalate the new cold war that began under Obama, and which the American deep state - or those elements of it that are "#NeverTrump" - have done everything they can to keep going, despite Trump's obvious desire to make a deal with Putin too.
As a postscript, let me review a few other things that are happening, or that are going to happen:
Spain and Italy got new governments. The Italian government is a left-right, anti-center coalition which has started turning away the boats from Africa.
Turkey has an election this month, Pakistan has an election next month. One expects no change in Turkey. But in Pakistan we shall see if Imran Khan's turn has arrived at last.
Mexico has an election next month, Brazil has an election next year. The cartels have been killing many Mexican politicians. The winner could be "Amlo", a leftist populist. As for Brazil, despite the universality of the corruption revealed by Operation Car Wash, they have tried to pin it mostly on Lula and Dilma, so perhaps they will end up with Bolsonaro, widely regarded as Brazil's Trump.
Then there is the new hardline American approach to Iran. For now, Europe, China, and India are keen to preserve the economic ties with Iran that the Obama deal legitimated; but America is likely to sanction entities in those countries, that trade with elements of the Iranian military power structure. Trump's willingness to meet with Kim tells the Iranians that he is willing to make a new deal; but he may also be trying to remove North Korea as a source of military supplies and knowledge.
Finally, this meeting with Kim may be but a prelude to a far more important meeting with Putin, perhaps six or more months from now, in order to de-escalate the new cold war that began under Obama, and which the American deep state - or those elements of it that are "#NeverTrump" - have done everything they can to keep going, despite Trump's obvious desire to make a deal with Putin too.
As a postscript, let me review a few other things that are happening, or that are going to happen:
Spain and Italy got new governments. The Italian government is a left-right, anti-center coalition which has started turning away the boats from Africa.
Turkey has an election this month, Pakistan has an election next month. One expects no change in Turkey. But in Pakistan we shall see if Imran Khan's turn has arrived at last.
Mexico has an election next month, Brazil has an election next year. The cartels have been killing many Mexican politicians. The winner could be "Amlo", a leftist populist. As for Brazil, despite the universality of the corruption revealed by Operation Car Wash, they have tried to pin it mostly on Lula and Dilma, so perhaps they will end up with Bolsonaro, widely regarded as Brazil's Trump.
Where we stand: the geopolitical alignments of 2018
The previous post seemed necessary, in order to explain my interpretation of the present.
Before Trump, we could say that there were two cohesive blocs in the world, an American-led bloc which promoted liberal internationalism, and a bloc led by Russia and China which promoted a revival of national sovereignty.
There are still two blocs. But the American-led bloc is experiencing internal turmoil, both culturally - the battle between diversity and revived tradition - and politically - America is led by a nationalist willing to confront countries already within America's sphere of influence, and also willing to reach out personally to leaders outside the bloc.
I wrote before that we are in a world of four strongmen - Trump, Putin, Xi, and Modi. (Of course there are many others on the scene, but they are the four big figures.) That Trump is America's strongman is truer than ever. The American bloc has become his personal fiefdom. His rule is less ideological, but more authoritarian.
Over the weekend, there was a G7 summit in Canada, and a SCO summit in China. The SCO summit was quieter, more collegial, also far more consequential. India, Pakistan, and Iran attended. There was talk that India might seek a trade connection to Europe via Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile Trump bickered with his G7 colleagues, said Russia should be readmitted to the grouping, and then headed to Singapore for his summit with Kim Jong Un.
I would like to add something about the relations of India, and the Muslim world, with the three big powers. India geographically is in the eastern bloc, but politically and even linguistically, it can get along with the western bloc. It plays both sides.
As for Islam, the de facto defeat of the Islamic State has been succeeded by a new stage in the sectarian rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the leadership of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudis launched their war in Yemen, blockade of Qatar, cobbled together a Sunni military alliance, and began Vision 2030, a project of cultural and economic modernization at home.
This would-be Sunni NATO is effectively allied with Israel and America, while Russia finds itself on the side of Iran's Shia crescent, and also Turkey, who turned east when faced with the threat of Kurdish separatism.
Before Trump, we could say that there were two cohesive blocs in the world, an American-led bloc which promoted liberal internationalism, and a bloc led by Russia and China which promoted a revival of national sovereignty.
There are still two blocs. But the American-led bloc is experiencing internal turmoil, both culturally - the battle between diversity and revived tradition - and politically - America is led by a nationalist willing to confront countries already within America's sphere of influence, and also willing to reach out personally to leaders outside the bloc.
I wrote before that we are in a world of four strongmen - Trump, Putin, Xi, and Modi. (Of course there are many others on the scene, but they are the four big figures.) That Trump is America's strongman is truer than ever. The American bloc has become his personal fiefdom. His rule is less ideological, but more authoritarian.
Over the weekend, there was a G7 summit in Canada, and a SCO summit in China. The SCO summit was quieter, more collegial, also far more consequential. India, Pakistan, and Iran attended. There was talk that India might seek a trade connection to Europe via Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile Trump bickered with his G7 colleagues, said Russia should be readmitted to the grouping, and then headed to Singapore for his summit with Kim Jong Un.
I would like to add something about the relations of India, and the Muslim world, with the three big powers. India geographically is in the eastern bloc, but politically and even linguistically, it can get along with the western bloc. It plays both sides.
As for Islam, the de facto defeat of the Islamic State has been succeeded by a new stage in the sectarian rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the leadership of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudis launched their war in Yemen, blockade of Qatar, cobbled together a Sunni military alliance, and began Vision 2030, a project of cultural and economic modernization at home.
This would-be Sunni NATO is effectively allied with Israel and America, while Russia finds itself on the side of Iran's Shia crescent, and also Turkey, who turned east when faced with the threat of Kurdish separatism.
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