Where we stand: the geopolitical alignments of 2018

The previous post seemed necessary, in order to explain my interpretation of the present.

Before Trump, we could say that there were two cohesive blocs in the world, an American-led bloc which promoted liberal internationalism, and a bloc led by Russia and China which promoted a revival of national sovereignty.

There are still two blocs. But the American-led bloc is experiencing internal turmoil, both culturally - the battle between diversity and revived tradition - and politically - America is led by a nationalist willing to confront countries already within America's sphere of influence, and also willing to reach out personally to leaders outside the bloc.

I wrote before that we are in a world of four strongmen - Trump, Putin, Xi, and Modi. (Of course there are many others on the scene, but they are the four big figures.) That Trump is America's strongman is truer than ever. The American bloc has become his personal fiefdom. His rule is less ideological, but more authoritarian.

Over the weekend, there was a G7 summit in Canada, and a SCO summit in China. The SCO summit was quieter, more collegial, also far more consequential. India, Pakistan, and Iran attended. There was talk that India might seek a trade connection to Europe via Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile Trump bickered with his G7 colleagues, said Russia should be readmitted to the grouping, and then headed to Singapore for his summit with Kim Jong Un.

I would like to add something about the relations of India, and the Muslim world, with the three big powers. India geographically is in the eastern bloc, but politically and even linguistically, it can get along with the western bloc. It plays both sides.

As for Islam, the de facto defeat of the Islamic State has been succeeded by a new stage in the sectarian rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the leadership of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudis launched their war in Yemen, blockade of Qatar, cobbled together a Sunni military alliance, and began Vision 2030, a project of cultural and economic modernization at home.

This would-be Sunni NATO is effectively allied with Israel and America, while Russia finds itself on the side of Iran's Shia crescent, and also Turkey, who turned east when faced with the threat of Kurdish separatism.