War in Ukraine

Tug of war is a sport in which two teams pull on opposite ends of a rope. For years Russia and Europe/America have played geopolitical tug of war over the fate of Ukraine, a motherland of eastern Slavs. Last week, it became a real war: Russia recognized the separatist republics of eastern Ukraine, and invaded the rest of the country, vowing to "demilitarize and denazify" it. The western powers (members of NATO) have condemned the act. They have been cautious about getting involved in the fighting, but escalated financial warfare quickly, severing numerous economic ties with Russia - though for now, energy-hungry Europe continues to purchase the natural gas that is Russia's main export. 

Perhaps the American withdrawal from Afghanistan convinced the Russian leadership that it was time to decisively bring Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence. In December 2021, Russia suddenly demanded a treaty from America that would guarantee Ukraine's neutrality, and restrict NATO activities near Russia's borders. America refused, and during the February winter Olympics in China, began to warn that Russia had decided to invade. The prediction was not believed, even in Ukraine, but two days after the Olympics ended, the invasion began. 

There was a vote at the UN General Assembly, deploring Russia's actions, and it might be compared with previous UN motions criticizing China's actions in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. On both occasions, the NATO countries of North America and western Europe were united in voting to condemn. What about the rest of the world? When it came to criticizing China, very few other countries joined in. These were Chinese internal affairs, and even Muslim countries showed no interest in the western campaign for Uighur human rights. 

On the other hand, Russia has now recognized separatists and invaded another sovereign state. No state on Earth wants to be invaded or partitioned, and so, even though Russia gave its reasons (security threat from NATO, persecution of ethnic Russians in Ukraine), many more countries regard Russia's actions as dangerous - as setting a bad precedent. Only a literal handful of countries voted in defense of Russia, e.g. allies like Belarus and Syria, and the vote to deplore drew support from many world regions outside of NATO. 

Still, many significant countries have refused to take sides. China, which in recent years has repeatedly declared that Russia is now a close strategic partner, has called for peace talks that will address the grievances of both Russia and Ukraine, and has strongly opposed the western economic sanctions against Russia. India also values its ties with Russia, especially as a source of military and strategic technologies. This is producing friction with America, for whom India is a very willing partner when it comes to the military and economic containment of China; but India has firmly declined to take sides against Russia. 

Africa and the Middle East are also divided between opposition to the Russian invasion, and neutrality. South Africa, a BRICS nation, abstained from the UN vote (unlike BRICS partner Brazil, which voted to deplore). Ethiopia, still at war with its Tigray rebels, also abstained (and its ally in that war, Eritrea, voted in support of Russia). 

Iran (and Iraq, and Pakistan) also abstained. The case of Iran is interesting. The Biden administration would like to revive the Obama nuclear deal with Iran. Trump scrapped that deal, instituting harsh economic sanctions. The rumor is that the deal may soon be revived. Iran is an ally of Russia in many ways; but does Biden's America think they can create distance between Iran and Russia, in return for lifting the sanctions? 

Life goes on for most of the world: After the Winter Olympics, China has started its annual "two sessions" of political deliberation. France is preparing for presidential elections in April; the external crisis in eastern Europe, and resulting weakness of anti-system candidates, makes Macron a favorite to retain the position - not just leader of France, but leader of Europe along with Germany's new, post-Merkel, red-green government. 

And the era of Covid seems to be fading out. The Delta strain from India, and then the Omicron strain from South Africa, combined with progress in mass vaccination, and political and social exhaustion with anti-Covid restrictions, saw increasingly many governments resigned to treating Covid as a background problem rather than a global priority. For America in particular, the confrontation with Russia requires that the old crisis be retired, so that attention can be focused on the new one.