The meeting between Trump and Kim has multiple potential meanings. It could be a prelude to increased American detachment from East Asia. Trump may wish to negotiate with Putin and Xi, over the heads of South Korea and Japan, in order to produce a new regional equilibrium of decreased militarization and increased economic integration.
Then there is the new hardline American approach to Iran. For now, Europe, China, and India are keen to preserve the economic ties with Iran that the Obama deal legitimated; but America is likely to sanction entities in those countries, that trade with elements of the Iranian military power structure. Trump's willingness to meet with Kim tells the Iranians that he is willing to make a new deal; but he may also be trying to remove North Korea as a source of military supplies and knowledge.
Finally, this meeting with Kim may be but a prelude to a far more important meeting with Putin, perhaps six or more months from now, in order to de-escalate the new cold war that began under Obama, and which the American deep state - or those elements of it that are "#NeverTrump" - have done everything they can to keep going, despite Trump's obvious desire to make a deal with Putin too.
As a postscript, let me review a few other things that are happening, or that are going to happen:
Spain and Italy got new governments. The Italian government is a left-right, anti-center coalition which has started turning away the boats from Africa.
Turkey has an election this month, Pakistan has an election next month. One expects no change in Turkey. But in Pakistan we shall see if Imran Khan's turn has arrived at last.
Mexico has an election next month, Brazil has an election next year. The cartels have been killing many Mexican politicians. The winner could be "Amlo", a leftist populist. As for Brazil, despite the universality of the corruption revealed by Operation Car Wash, they have tried to pin it mostly on Lula and Dilma, so perhaps they will end up with Bolsonaro, widely regarded as Brazil's Trump.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
Where we stand: the geopolitical alignments of 2018
The previous post seemed necessary, in order to explain my interpretation of the present.
Before Trump, we could say that there were two cohesive blocs in the world, an American-led bloc which promoted liberal internationalism, and a bloc led by Russia and China which promoted a revival of national sovereignty.
There are still two blocs. But the American-led bloc is experiencing internal turmoil, both culturally - the battle between diversity and revived tradition - and politically - America is led by a nationalist willing to confront countries already within America's sphere of influence, and also willing to reach out personally to leaders outside the bloc.
I wrote before that we are in a world of four strongmen - Trump, Putin, Xi, and Modi. (Of course there are many others on the scene, but they are the four big figures.) That Trump is America's strongman is truer than ever. The American bloc has become his personal fiefdom. His rule is less ideological, but more authoritarian.
Over the weekend, there was a G7 summit in Canada, and a SCO summit in China. The SCO summit was quieter, more collegial, also far more consequential. India, Pakistan, and Iran attended. There was talk that India might seek a trade connection to Europe via Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile Trump bickered with his G7 colleagues, said Russia should be readmitted to the grouping, and then headed to Singapore for his summit with Kim Jong Un.
I would like to add something about the relations of India, and the Muslim world, with the three big powers. India geographically is in the eastern bloc, but politically and even linguistically, it can get along with the western bloc. It plays both sides.
As for Islam, the de facto defeat of the Islamic State has been succeeded by a new stage in the sectarian rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the leadership of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudis launched their war in Yemen, blockade of Qatar, cobbled together a Sunni military alliance, and began Vision 2030, a project of cultural and economic modernization at home.
This would-be Sunni NATO is effectively allied with Israel and America, while Russia finds itself on the side of Iran's Shia crescent, and also Turkey, who turned east when faced with the threat of Kurdish separatism.
Before Trump, we could say that there were two cohesive blocs in the world, an American-led bloc which promoted liberal internationalism, and a bloc led by Russia and China which promoted a revival of national sovereignty.
There are still two blocs. But the American-led bloc is experiencing internal turmoil, both culturally - the battle between diversity and revived tradition - and politically - America is led by a nationalist willing to confront countries already within America's sphere of influence, and also willing to reach out personally to leaders outside the bloc.
I wrote before that we are in a world of four strongmen - Trump, Putin, Xi, and Modi. (Of course there are many others on the scene, but they are the four big figures.) That Trump is America's strongman is truer than ever. The American bloc has become his personal fiefdom. His rule is less ideological, but more authoritarian.
Over the weekend, there was a G7 summit in Canada, and a SCO summit in China. The SCO summit was quieter, more collegial, also far more consequential. India, Pakistan, and Iran attended. There was talk that India might seek a trade connection to Europe via Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile Trump bickered with his G7 colleagues, said Russia should be readmitted to the grouping, and then headed to Singapore for his summit with Kim Jong Un.
I would like to add something about the relations of India, and the Muslim world, with the three big powers. India geographically is in the eastern bloc, but politically and even linguistically, it can get along with the western bloc. It plays both sides.
As for Islam, the de facto defeat of the Islamic State has been succeeded by a new stage in the sectarian rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Under the leadership of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudis launched their war in Yemen, blockade of Qatar, cobbled together a Sunni military alliance, and began Vision 2030, a project of cultural and economic modernization at home.
This would-be Sunni NATO is effectively allied with Israel and America, while Russia finds itself on the side of Iran's Shia crescent, and also Turkey, who turned east when faced with the threat of Kurdish separatism.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
How we got here: a reminder
After the cold war ended, around 1990, America went from being one of two superpowers, to being the global "hyperpower". The World Trade Organization aspired to create a single global market. Russia was reduced to being a source of natural resources for the German-led EU. China's one-party state was an anomaly that would inevitably politically modernize. Resistance to the global order came from a handful of rogue states - North Korea, the last true socialist state, and various Muslim countries opposed to Israel.
But change brewed under the surface. In Russia, Primakov envisioned an eastern alliance between Russia, India, and China, and Dugin sought a new ideological basis for eastern resistance to the west. On the borders of the Muslim ummah, mujahideen fought on half a dozen fronts, emboldened by the fall of the Soviet Union. China strengthened Pakistan, North Korea sold missiles to the Middle East, Pakistan spread nuclear knowledge to other Muslim countries.
The 9/11 attacks turned the American ideological hegemony into an overtly military one. Bush occupied Iraq and Afghanistan, and forced Pakistan to fight its own jihadis (the alternative being an overt Indian-American military alliance). The nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea became the center of interminable diplomatic processes. US military commands were created for every continent, and the NSA spied on the entire Earth.
Under Obama, the hegemon tried to be more inclusive. The world economy was governed by the G20, not just the G7. The president was the son of an African man, and grew up in an Asian Muslim country. He dabbled in supporting Islamist democracy in the Arab world, and made a nuclear deal with Iran. In America itself, racial (and gender) diversity became an obsession.
But none of this was enough. Russia was reborn as defender of tradition and as the armory of a multipolar world. The 9/11 terrorists, who sought for years to recreate the caliphate in Iraq, moved to Syria in the aftermath of the Arab spring, unleashing a wave of migration into Europe that overturned the center-left consensus there, in favor of right-wing nationalism. China ceased hiding its strength and announced a project of economic integration stretching across Asia. And finally, in America itself, a celebrity billionaire revealed himself as a nationalist strongman and acquired the presidency despite opposition from almost the entire media and political establishment.
But change brewed under the surface. In Russia, Primakov envisioned an eastern alliance between Russia, India, and China, and Dugin sought a new ideological basis for eastern resistance to the west. On the borders of the Muslim ummah, mujahideen fought on half a dozen fronts, emboldened by the fall of the Soviet Union. China strengthened Pakistan, North Korea sold missiles to the Middle East, Pakistan spread nuclear knowledge to other Muslim countries.
The 9/11 attacks turned the American ideological hegemony into an overtly military one. Bush occupied Iraq and Afghanistan, and forced Pakistan to fight its own jihadis (the alternative being an overt Indian-American military alliance). The nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea became the center of interminable diplomatic processes. US military commands were created for every continent, and the NSA spied on the entire Earth.
Under Obama, the hegemon tried to be more inclusive. The world economy was governed by the G20, not just the G7. The president was the son of an African man, and grew up in an Asian Muslim country. He dabbled in supporting Islamist democracy in the Arab world, and made a nuclear deal with Iran. In America itself, racial (and gender) diversity became an obsession.
But none of this was enough. Russia was reborn as defender of tradition and as the armory of a multipolar world. The 9/11 terrorists, who sought for years to recreate the caliphate in Iraq, moved to Syria in the aftermath of the Arab spring, unleashing a wave of migration into Europe that overturned the center-left consensus there, in favor of right-wing nationalism. China ceased hiding its strength and announced a project of economic integration stretching across Asia. And finally, in America itself, a celebrity billionaire revealed himself as a nationalist strongman and acquired the presidency despite opposition from almost the entire media and political establishment.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)