News from the quaternity

The quaternity has been my private name for the four big powers, America, Russia, India, China.

America remains in political flux. I won't even try to predict what's next; but I will make a comparison with Russia.

Just now in Russia, there were demonstrations against corruption. The numbers weren't big, but they were in dozens of cities. As I understand it, they were held in response to a video by Alexei Navalny detailing a network of corruption around prime minister Medvedev.

Now contrast this with what Trump is facing: challenges from CNN and the CIA, as well as from the establishment of his own party. Putin owns the institutions but faces an activist opposition, whereas Trump faces institutional opposition.

China meanwhile is busy building its new geoeconomic empire - every month, more countries join the New Silk Road and its maritime counterpart. I was struck by the prominence of China's political consultative assemblies in recent weeks. These bodies have no power, but they do issue advice to the real government. It seems like a Chinese path, if not to democracy as the West understands it, then to a more participatory technocracy.

Finally, in India the giant state of Uttar Pradesh voted for Modi's BJP, and now a Yogi Adityanath is the new chief minister. Ayodhya is here, site of a mosque that was torn down by Hindu activists in the early 1990s, so that a temple of the god Rama could be rebuilt. If that happens, it could be like the founding of modern Israel, a turning point in the revival of a major religious civilization.