What happened in Iraq and then in Syria, is that the central governments lost control of the Kurdish and Sunni Arab regions, which then began to link up across the national borders, in pursuit of Kurdistan and the new caliphate, respectively.
Once the Iranian nuclear deal was done, a little over a year ago, Russia then intervened to save the Syrian state. But now we have a new intervention, by Turkey. It's been said that the failed coup was meant to stop this from happening; and now it's rumored that Turkey wants to play a role in the liberation of Mosul, in Iraq, from the Islamic State.
And so it has occurred to me: what if Erdogan plans to rescue the Sunni Arabs, and crush Kurdish independence, by simply occupying those territories? He always believed that Turkey should again become the big power in the region. Before the Arab spring, the plan was that Turkish leadership would solve the region's problems through economic development and Islamic brotherhood. During the spring, Erdogan bet on the victory of the revolutions and said that Assad must go.
When Russia intervened, it looked like that strategy had failed, and perhaps it did. Erdogan came close to losing power entirely. But he survived, purged the "Gulenists", and still feels free to attack the US, the EU, and the UN at will. He has become the Duterte of the Middle East - without the bad language; but insisting on strategic autonomy for his country.
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