This blog exists to discuss "defaultonomics", so with Greece on the brink, I have to say something. But the truth is, I have little to say, and I'm not even sure if this is very important.
There is so much happening in the world; even if we focus just on Europe, Greece appears to be just one of many crises for the EU, alongside Libya, Iran, and Ukraine... and the long-run meaning of what happens to Greece, may be inseparable from what becomes of that broader gestalt.
I don't do broad political speculation here, but, what the hell, let's spin a scenario... Russia is pressing against NATO and EU from the east. Russia's dream would be to see Europe, especially Germany, kick out America, and form a partnership with Russia, from Dublin to Vladivostok. In the short term, Russia will settle for working with any dissatisfied force in Europe, from Hungary's Orban to France's Le Pen.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Islamist Turkey dreams of reestablishing its Ottoman influence, from the Balkans to the Sunni Arab world. Russia's struggle with pro-American Europe already intersected with Turkey's power, when EU regulators tried to restrict Russian control of the planned South Stream pipeline, and Russia responded by cancelling it, and initiating a substitute project with Turkey...
If Greece crashes out of the eurozone, we might see it become another intersection of Russian and Turkish deal-making: Greece becoming another disorderly Balkan state in Turkey's neo-Ottoman sphere of influence, and an ally of Russia's attempt to bring the EU to heel.
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