The world is one week into 2024. It is still divided between an American-led bloc, a bloc centered on Russia and China, and a neutral bloc who play both sides, India being the biggest such country.
There are many elections scheduled for this year. There are ongoing wars too. The biggest is still Russia versus Ukraine, almost two years old, Putin's gamble that he can halt the eastward expansion of NATO. The newest is Israel versus Palestinian Gaza, Netanyahu's war to uproot Hamas. There are also civil wars in Sudan, Myanmar, and elsewhere.
All these wars have a geopolitical context. The war in Ukraine is obviously a war of Russia against the American bloc. Less obviously, the Palestinian war with Israel is also part of a long Iranian-led war to drive the American military out of the region too. Russian access to the Red Sea and Chinese access to the Indian Ocean are at stake in Sudan and Myanmar. Wars around Israel and Iran affect Indian trade routes to Europe and Russia.
The political calendar is busy. Already, as 2023 ended, the conservatives lost power in Poland and a radical libertarian was elected in Argentina. A presidential election will be held a few days from now in Taiwan. Pakistan and Indonesia will hold elections in February, with Pakistan's former prime minister Imran Khan in jail, and Indonesia's popular Joko Widodo having reached the limit of ten years in office.
In March, both Russia and Ukraine are due to have elections, though Putin's victory is preordained, and Zelensky might delay a vote because of the war. China will also be having its annual "two sessions" of public political deliberation and consultation.
India's vote, the world's biggest by number of voters, is so big that it will take two months to unfold, throughout April and May. Mexico will vote in June. And America's vote, the most geopolitically consequential, will take place in November, potentially a rerun of 2020's Biden versus Trump, if Trump can overcome the numerous legal challenges to his candidacy.
