The war in Ukraine returned to life as the antagonists exchanged new blows. After a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia annexed four more Ukrainian provinces and called up several hundred thousand more soldiers. About a week later, after Putin's birthday, the new bridge supplying Russian forces in Crimea was sabotaged. In retaliation, Russia appointed a new military commander, and bombarded the power grid throughout Ukraine.
Also along the way, one of the Nord Stream pipelines supplying Russian gas to Europe was sabotaged. Russia blamed Britain; the explosion was possibly caused by a remote-control mine that had been left there years earlier. Britain was having its own troubles; first the queen died, then the new PM's economic plan led to a currency and pensions crisis, and she was replaced by a rival after just a month in office.
The European Union fared little better. On top of inflation and the approaching winter, the lack of Russian gas was causing factories to close in Germany, the economic heart of Europe. Chancellor Scholz and German business leaders went to China, while France's Macron warned that Biden's plan to "buy American" would lead to economic retaliation from Europe.
In China, it was time for the first post-Covid party congress. Alone in the world, China was still regularly locking down cities, at great economic cost, not yet ready to rely on vaccine-based herd immunity. The past two years had also seen the state assert control over the tech sector and the Internet, after a decade of wild competition among behemoths like Alibaba and Tencent. The old model of export-driven economic growth run by capitalist tycoons was being replaced by a new one, in which the state would prioritize advanced technologies of strategic importance, and China's internal market would be cultivated, with the aim of becoming a middle-income country.
But there were great challenges to overcome: too many old people and not enough young ones, a real estate bubble and lots of debt, and the continuing hostility of the United States, now focused on computer chips. Political stability was therefore essential, to keep the country on track. To this end, Xi Jinping stayed on as president, and filled the politburo with his own men, many of them with scientific and technological backgrounds, appropriate to the new era of high-tech rivalry. Premier Li Keqiang, a member of former president Hu Jintao's faction, would be replaced by Li Qiang, party head of Shanghai during controversial Covid lockdowns. But foreign minister Wang Yi stayed, perhaps to provide continuity and a familiar face in China's foreign negotiations.
In the United States, the midpoint of Biden's presidential term approached, and with it a chance for Republicans to snatch back control of the Congress and Senate. Along with external enemies Putin and Xi, and the continuing menace of a Trump restoration, Biden faced a new foe in the form of the world's richest man, Elon Musk. As CEO, Musk has made his companies useful to America's ideological and strategic agenda: Tesla makes electric cars needed for the green transition, SpaceX rockets put American astronauts and machines into space, Starlink satellites provided secure communications for Ukraine. This focus on producing material goods perhaps helped protect him from the losses which purely digital moguls like Bezos and Zuckerberg faced in 2022.
But alarmed by the left wing of America's culture war, and perhaps by Biden plans for higher corporate taxes, Musk had declared himself a Republican, and put in a bid for ownership of Twitter, the nervous system of America's liberal academics, journalists, politicians, and "woke" corporations. Less than two weeks before the midterm elections, the deal was made, and Musk started firing all the teams responsible for policing discourse on the site. Republicans were ecstatic, Democrats gloomy or outraged.
In the Middle East, the OPEC+ bloc of oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, rebuffed Biden's entreaties for a production boost and lower prices, instead agreeing to reduce production, in anticipation of recession in Europe and China, and consequent lower demand. Increasingly independent, no longer trusting America to always take its side against Iran, and simply not wanting to miss out on Eurasian integration and the rise of Asia, Saudi Arabia had followed Iran in applying to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the cornerstone of Russia and China's shared drive to develop alternatives to western institutions.
Iran itself was beset with another of its perennial outbursts of frustrated and angry youth, this time demonstrating against compulsory hijab and the heavy hand of the political system there, especially in regions dominated by the Sunni minority. Meanwhile it was rumored that its ally Russia - strategically more aligned with Iran than ever, thanks to the western economic war - was allowing Iran to test its military drones on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Israel elected Netanyahu yet again, this time in coalition with hardline Jewish religious parties. Turkey fought the worldwide trend and continued its unusual low interest rate policies, thereby experiencing some of the highest inflation in the world. And in Pakistan, the saga of deposed PM Imran Khan continued: he was barred from politics for five years, an allied journalist (Arshad Sharif) fled the country but was suspiciously killed in Kenya, Imran himself was shot in the leg but carried on in a wheelchair.
Pakistan and India had both felt echoes from the Ukrainian war. Imran claimed his parliamentary overthrow was due to a pro-American conspiracy; India had displeased America by purchasing lots of oil from its old friend Russia. America promised technical support for Pakistan's F-16 fighters, possibly a reward for rejoining the American camp; India negotiated an end to its two-year border conflict with China, possibly improving its standing with the anti-American camp, and tested its nuclear-capable missile Agni Prime. Within India, Modi's Hindu nationalists continued their political and cultural consolidation, with opposition media "The Wire" exposed as promoting fake news stories.
In the Americas, Brazil's Lula completed his comeback with a narrow victory over the "Trump of the tropics", Jair Bolsonaro, but would find his progressive and multipolar agenda greatly constrained by pro-American and Bolsonarist forces. In Africa, talks in South Africa yielded an end to the Ethiopian government's bloody war against the remnants of the previous regime in Tigray province. In outer space, America nudged an asteroid and China extended its space station. The G-20 nations were due to meet in Indonesia, the world's climate negotiators were due to meet in Egypt.
