Saturday, January 5, 2019

How 2018 ended and 2019 began

In America, the Democrats regained control of the House. A quarter of the government is shut down while they and Trump engage in a battle of wills over whether the border wall will be funded. Meanwhile, newly elected "democratic socialists" propose a Green New Deal (Ocasio-Cortez) and impeachment now (Tlaib). In Europe, the gilets jaunes took to the streets in France every weekend, Brexit negotiations kept limping along, and the AfD was the only major German party not to have its leaders doxxed in a big Twitter leak. 

China found its phone manufacturer Huawei ("Chinese achievement"), which leads the world in 5G technology, attacked in the West as a security risk. CFO and founder's daughter Meng Wanzhou was detained in Canada for trading with Iran, quantum genius and venture capitalist Zhang Shoucheng was declared dead from suicide, and a Dutch supplier of chip-etching technology had a factory gutted by fire, all within a few days.

In India, Stalin and Gandhi united to beat Modi in three state elections (that's Tamil politician M.K. Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi). But BJP stalwart Subramaniam Swamy still thinks they can win nationally in May, if they emphasize Hindutva (Ayodhya temple) and anti-corruption. Look for UP chief minister "Yogi" to be a star campaigner.

Next door in prospering Bangladesh (clothing supplier to the world), Hasina's Awami League crushed the opposition at the polls, after first crushing them in the courts. Pakistan jailed former PM Nawaz Sharif - he joins Brazil's Lula and Bangladesh's Khaleda Zia as an imprisoned former leader - who just five years ago presided over Pakistan's embrace of China's new silk road. But no doubt China can do business with Imran too, in a way concordant with the 11 priorities of his New Pakistan.

In the Middle East, Turkey and Syria are on the mend, while Saudi Arabia and Iran have been weakened (by the Khashoggi affair, by the return of American sanctions); perhaps that's why there are now peace talks about Yemen. Qatar left OPEC; it would be more significant if Iran left too. The commander of the US fifth fleet, which would control any blockade of Iran, was found dead in his Bahrain residence; and Mad Dog Mattis quit as Pentagon chief, perhaps because Trump wants America out of Afghanistan as well as out of Syria. 

Brazil and Mexico traded places - Mexico got a left populist (Amlo), Brazil got a right populist (Bolsonaro). Bolsonaro has been compared to the Philippines' Duterte, but he has to work with the legislature, which is also full of new faces. For Brazilians, whether or not they specifically view the military era as a golden age, the important thing is that they have a fresh start, with which to tackle crime and corruption.