Lately I have not had time to study world events as in the past. But I will at least sketch the way that things appear.
In 1900, the world was at the zenith of the European world empires. That world order was destroyed by two world wars, and replaced by our world with three high-tech superpowers (four, if India can fulfill its potential) striving for influence in a world of almost 200 states. From this perspective, the great "cold war" between Russia and America was simply an episode in the relations of the postcolonial great powers.
Thirty years after that cold war ended with people power in eastern Europe, the G-20 globe is again haunted by people in the streets, but there's no united front. In the west, Extinction Rebellion creates urban inconvenience with its climate strikes. In Hong Kong, the students shut down the city, but to protest Chinese power. In Iraq and Lebanon, dissatisfaction with sectarian oligarchy may become the latest challenge to Iranian influence. In Chile they protest neoliberal inequality, in Bolivia they supported the coup against the leftist Evo Morales, in Ecuador they marched against an IMF-friendly "Lenin". The gilets jaunes just came out again in France and I have no idea what agenda is ascendant there now.
Among the great powers, China and Russia remain domestically secure, but struggling with the west for influence in the world. And within America itself, the struggle over whether western countries will become the progressive version of a "managed democracy" continues, with the Democrats still trying to undemocratically oust Trump for being undemocratic (the first narrative was that he got Putin to hack the election, the new narrative is that he bribed Ukraine to investigate Biden).
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
News of the east
It was the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, and socialism has made something of a comeback, not just through China's rise, but through the advance of "democratic socialists" (in Europe they would be social democrats) within America's Democratic Party. The west also saw a sudden return of climate activism via Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion, who found themselves in an unlikely alliance with whoever sent drones to attack Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, against the existing world energy system.
Middle East tension has been going up in step fashion, once every month or two: tankers mined, tankers seized, now a drone attack on Abqaiq, long known as a point of vulnerability. I see this as Iran demonstrating its ability, in the event of being attacked, to counterattack by stopping the flow of oil. And suddenly the region is in flux again: Trump fires hawk Bolton as his security advisor, Iraq's Muqtada encourages anti-corruption demonstrations, Israel remains in political limbo, and now Turkey will replace America in Syria, in another defeat for Kurdish independence.
India remained a crossroads of the ancient and the modern, Harappan nationalism and celebrity #MeToo. Its space agency, headed by a son of farmers, lost its lunar lander, but the orbiter continued its mission. A study of ancient Indian DNA was said by the secular intelligentsia to show the truth of Aryan Invasion, but somehow ended up being hailed by Hindu nationalists as proof that all Indians came from India. Some big political names passed away: Swaraj, Jaitley, Jethmalani. Next door, Pakistan was perturbed by the new status of Indian Kashmir, and Imran Khan went to Beijing to confer with Xi, before Xi was to meet in India with Modi, who was recently with Trump in Texas and Putin in Siberia. Nepal's communists opened a pipeline with India, even as they also worked with their Chinese comrades.
Indonesia proposed to locate a new capital in Borneo. Morally conservative changes to the criminal code brought out student demonstrators. And on the 20th anniversary of Timorese independence, West Papua entered a time of troubles.
Middle East tension has been going up in step fashion, once every month or two: tankers mined, tankers seized, now a drone attack on Abqaiq, long known as a point of vulnerability. I see this as Iran demonstrating its ability, in the event of being attacked, to counterattack by stopping the flow of oil. And suddenly the region is in flux again: Trump fires hawk Bolton as his security advisor, Iraq's Muqtada encourages anti-corruption demonstrations, Israel remains in political limbo, and now Turkey will replace America in Syria, in another defeat for Kurdish independence.
India remained a crossroads of the ancient and the modern, Harappan nationalism and celebrity #MeToo. Its space agency, headed by a son of farmers, lost its lunar lander, but the orbiter continued its mission. A study of ancient Indian DNA was said by the secular intelligentsia to show the truth of Aryan Invasion, but somehow ended up being hailed by Hindu nationalists as proof that all Indians came from India. Some big political names passed away: Swaraj, Jaitley, Jethmalani. Next door, Pakistan was perturbed by the new status of Indian Kashmir, and Imran Khan went to Beijing to confer with Xi, before Xi was to meet in India with Modi, who was recently with Trump in Texas and Putin in Siberia. Nepal's communists opened a pipeline with India, even as they also worked with their Chinese comrades.
Indonesia proposed to locate a new capital in Borneo. Morally conservative changes to the criminal code brought out student demonstrators. And on the 20th anniversary of Timorese independence, West Papua entered a time of troubles.
Friday, August 16, 2019
The new long march
As India's month-long voting period came to an end, Xi Jinping visited a manufacturer of rare-earth magnets in Jiangxi province, starting point of the famous "long march" that cemented Mao's reputation as a commander. He later said that China is on another long march, to national rejuvenation. These two gestures were widely interpreted as referring to the trade war with America, in which rare earths are a valuable Chinese asset; although the American bloc has alternative supplies in Australia and Brazil.
No one knows how severe the trade war will become. One should perhaps think in terms of self-interested great powers (each with a sphere of influence), who will by turns compete and cooperate, as it suits them.
But China and America are certainly preparing for struggle, just in case. Blocked from purchasing American products, Huawei has announced its own operating system (Hongmeng or Harmony, a favorite concept in Xi's ideology). The Chinese digital economy remains strong, with Alibaba and Tencent struggling for primacy, and the three big telecoms getting 5G licenses.
China promoted the ASEAN-centered RCEP trade deal, possibly without India, while rival Japan hoped a TPP 2.0 would be viable, and America sabotaged the WTO judicial system, preferring bilateral deals. Japan had its own low-key high-tech trade war with South Korea, apparently a way to dodge revived Korean claims for wartime compensation. South Korea was even said to be entertaining a confederation with the north, which would instantly create a new high-tech nuclear power, rival to Japan and potentially independent of the American alliance system.
America pulled out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty, so it could compete with Chinese missiles in Asia. Russia developed nuclear-powered cruise missiles to restore deterrence, and sold air defense systems to still-in-NATO Turkey.
Turkish forces were present throughout Muslim Africa, from the Sahel to Sudan to Somalia, though they were attacked in Libya by old CIA friend, General Haftar. In Yemen, the Saudi-Emirates alliance against Iran was shaken by the Emirates' proxy seeking to retire from the war; while the Gulf saw oil tankers attacked and seized, in a show of Iran's power to turn off the oil.
Boris Johnson became British PM, and promised Brexit at the end of October, even if there was no deal. It also became likely that Britain would follow America, completely ban Huawei and leave the Iranian nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the European Union elected a new "commission president", Ursula von der Leyen, to take over at the start of November, and worried about the record temperatures in Paris and Berlin.
India banned 'triple talaq' instant divorce for Muslims, and suspended Kashmir's special constitutional status, preparing to make it just another state. The annual demonstrations in Hong Kong escalated into demands for political reform, eclipsing the plight of the Uighurs. But the American government showed little interest in either issue (despite a last-minute trip to Washington by Imran Khan), American society being preoccupied with immigration, race, guns, and the mysterious life and death of Jeffrey Epstein.
After six years in captivity, Egypt's Morsi died, a ghost of the Arab Spring. Still imprisoned, Brazil's Lula lived, and his sentencing judge Moro was embarrassed by leaked tapes showing collusion with the prosecution.
Space lab Tiangong 2 fell back to Earth; Hayabusa 2 sampled near-earth asteroid Ryugu; and Chandrayaan 2 set out for the lunar south pole.
No one knows how severe the trade war will become. One should perhaps think in terms of self-interested great powers (each with a sphere of influence), who will by turns compete and cooperate, as it suits them.
But China and America are certainly preparing for struggle, just in case. Blocked from purchasing American products, Huawei has announced its own operating system (Hongmeng or Harmony, a favorite concept in Xi's ideology). The Chinese digital economy remains strong, with Alibaba and Tencent struggling for primacy, and the three big telecoms getting 5G licenses.
China promoted the ASEAN-centered RCEP trade deal, possibly without India, while rival Japan hoped a TPP 2.0 would be viable, and America sabotaged the WTO judicial system, preferring bilateral deals. Japan had its own low-key high-tech trade war with South Korea, apparently a way to dodge revived Korean claims for wartime compensation. South Korea was even said to be entertaining a confederation with the north, which would instantly create a new high-tech nuclear power, rival to Japan and potentially independent of the American alliance system.
America pulled out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty, so it could compete with Chinese missiles in Asia. Russia developed nuclear-powered cruise missiles to restore deterrence, and sold air defense systems to still-in-NATO Turkey.
Turkish forces were present throughout Muslim Africa, from the Sahel to Sudan to Somalia, though they were attacked in Libya by old CIA friend, General Haftar. In Yemen, the Saudi-Emirates alliance against Iran was shaken by the Emirates' proxy seeking to retire from the war; while the Gulf saw oil tankers attacked and seized, in a show of Iran's power to turn off the oil.
Boris Johnson became British PM, and promised Brexit at the end of October, even if there was no deal. It also became likely that Britain would follow America, completely ban Huawei and leave the Iranian nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the European Union elected a new "commission president", Ursula von der Leyen, to take over at the start of November, and worried about the record temperatures in Paris and Berlin.
India banned 'triple talaq' instant divorce for Muslims, and suspended Kashmir's special constitutional status, preparing to make it just another state. The annual demonstrations in Hong Kong escalated into demands for political reform, eclipsing the plight of the Uighurs. But the American government showed little interest in either issue (despite a last-minute trip to Washington by Imran Khan), American society being preoccupied with immigration, race, guns, and the mysterious life and death of Jeffrey Epstein.
After six years in captivity, Egypt's Morsi died, a ghost of the Arab Spring. Still imprisoned, Brazil's Lula lived, and his sentencing judge Moro was embarrassed by leaked tapes showing collusion with the prosecution.
Space lab Tiangong 2 fell back to Earth; Hayabusa 2 sampled near-earth asteroid Ryugu; and Chandrayaan 2 set out for the lunar south pole.
Sunday, June 9, 2019
Modi's world
It was Ramadan in the ummah, now it's Pride month in the west.
India reelected Modi, crushing the opposition. China had Mao, Deng, Xi, now India has Nehru, Indira, Modi. During the long voting period, governments were reelected in Indonesia (despite violent Islamist protests) and Australia (despite confidently wrong polls).
American allies have detained Huawei's Meng Wanzhou and Wikileaks's Julian Assange, as part of the struggle with China and Russia respectively. Google and Facebook refused to install apps on Huawei phones, but Russia and Brazil said they would let Huawei develop their 5G networks.
Trump's America waged trade war against China, threatened Mexico with tariffs over the border issue and Turkey with sanctions for buying Russian missiles, and even removed duty-free status from Indian imports, as well as continuing the economic siege of Iran, by proposing to target any country that bought Iranian oil.
Governments fell in Algeria and Sudan, and General Haftar fought for power in Libya. Maduro hung on in Venezuela; Ramaphosa in South Africa; Netanyahu in Israel - but they will vote again. Euroskeptics dominated the EU vote in Britain, France, and Italy. Notre Dame burned, and Islamic State massacred Christians in Sri Lanka.
India reelected Modi, crushing the opposition. China had Mao, Deng, Xi, now India has Nehru, Indira, Modi. During the long voting period, governments were reelected in Indonesia (despite violent Islamist protests) and Australia (despite confidently wrong polls).
American allies have detained Huawei's Meng Wanzhou and Wikileaks's Julian Assange, as part of the struggle with China and Russia respectively. Google and Facebook refused to install apps on Huawei phones, but Russia and Brazil said they would let Huawei develop their 5G networks.
Trump's America waged trade war against China, threatened Mexico with tariffs over the border issue and Turkey with sanctions for buying Russian missiles, and even removed duty-free status from Indian imports, as well as continuing the economic siege of Iran, by proposing to target any country that bought Iranian oil.
Governments fell in Algeria and Sudan, and General Haftar fought for power in Libya. Maduro hung on in Venezuela; Ramaphosa in South Africa; Netanyahu in Israel - but they will vote again. Euroskeptics dominated the EU vote in Britain, France, and Italy. Notre Dame burned, and Islamic State massacred Christians in Sri Lanka.
Wednesday, April 3, 2019
On the eve of Reiwa era
2019, year of the classic anime 'Akira', also proves to be the beginning of a new imperial era in Japanese real life: 'Reiwa'. Announcement of the new era name seems a good occasion to catch up on world events.
In America, the Mueller investigation into 'Russiagate', object of a two-year hysteria promoted by liberal media, Democrat politicians, and intelligence bureaucrats, ended in nothing. Perhaps it is the last gasp of American liberalism. Formerly the political center, ageing liberals may now become the swing voters who will decide Trump vs Sanders in 2020, a contest of conservative nationalism versus progressive populism.
In Asia, India versus Pakistan remained the thorniest conflict. A suicide bombing of Indian paramilitary forces in Kashmir led to Indian aerial bombing of jihadi camps in Pakistan, all this with Indian elections just months away. India fumed as, at the UN, China again blocked designation of the head jihadi as a terrorist; and celebrated when Modi announced successful testing of an anti-satellite weapon, India thereby joining America, Russia, and China as a military space power.
China continued to consolidate its economic and technological power. Italy became the first G7 country to join Xi's new Silk Road, and Huawei remained the leader in 5G technologies, Samsung its only real rival. Even in India, Chinese phones and apps dominated the market.
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation criticized India's actions in Kashmir and lauded China's actions in Xinjiang. A Muslim congresswoman in America created a stir by criticizing Israeli influence in American political life, and an Australian terrorist appalled the world by livestreaming the massacre of fifty innocent Muslims in a New Zealand mosque.
Brexit continued to not happen, but the nationalist right in many countries was on track to increase its presence in the European parliament. Ukraine, formerly Russia's gateway to Europe, proposed to make a fake president from a TV comedy their next real president; while Kazakhstan, still Russia's partner in cooperation with China, renamed its capital in honor of its retiring long-term president.
Thailand voted (but the king did not allow his sister, friendly to exiled PM Shinawatra, to run). Indonesia prepared to vote, the incumbent president perhaps having the advantage over his ex-military opponent; the Malaysia of Mahathir 2.0 prepared to put former PM Razak on trial for corruption; and Brunei prepared to make homosexuality, theft, and blasphemy punishable by death. Vietnam hosted another Trump-Kim summit, but America was not willing to withdraw its nuclear bombers from East Asia, as Kim proposed.
With the support of Brazil and America, the young head of one of Venezuela's two competing legislative assemblies declared himself president. In Nigeria, a reformed coup leader from thirty years ago, won reelection as the civilian president. Egypt continued to work on its new administrative capital, outside Cairo.
The Reiwa era of 'beautiful harmony' is due to begin next month. It seems we all have some work to do.
In America, the Mueller investigation into 'Russiagate', object of a two-year hysteria promoted by liberal media, Democrat politicians, and intelligence bureaucrats, ended in nothing. Perhaps it is the last gasp of American liberalism. Formerly the political center, ageing liberals may now become the swing voters who will decide Trump vs Sanders in 2020, a contest of conservative nationalism versus progressive populism.
In Asia, India versus Pakistan remained the thorniest conflict. A suicide bombing of Indian paramilitary forces in Kashmir led to Indian aerial bombing of jihadi camps in Pakistan, all this with Indian elections just months away. India fumed as, at the UN, China again blocked designation of the head jihadi as a terrorist; and celebrated when Modi announced successful testing of an anti-satellite weapon, India thereby joining America, Russia, and China as a military space power.
China continued to consolidate its economic and technological power. Italy became the first G7 country to join Xi's new Silk Road, and Huawei remained the leader in 5G technologies, Samsung its only real rival. Even in India, Chinese phones and apps dominated the market.
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation criticized India's actions in Kashmir and lauded China's actions in Xinjiang. A Muslim congresswoman in America created a stir by criticizing Israeli influence in American political life, and an Australian terrorist appalled the world by livestreaming the massacre of fifty innocent Muslims in a New Zealand mosque.
Brexit continued to not happen, but the nationalist right in many countries was on track to increase its presence in the European parliament. Ukraine, formerly Russia's gateway to Europe, proposed to make a fake president from a TV comedy their next real president; while Kazakhstan, still Russia's partner in cooperation with China, renamed its capital in honor of its retiring long-term president.
Thailand voted (but the king did not allow his sister, friendly to exiled PM Shinawatra, to run). Indonesia prepared to vote, the incumbent president perhaps having the advantage over his ex-military opponent; the Malaysia of Mahathir 2.0 prepared to put former PM Razak on trial for corruption; and Brunei prepared to make homosexuality, theft, and blasphemy punishable by death. Vietnam hosted another Trump-Kim summit, but America was not willing to withdraw its nuclear bombers from East Asia, as Kim proposed.
With the support of Brazil and America, the young head of one of Venezuela's two competing legislative assemblies declared himself president. In Nigeria, a reformed coup leader from thirty years ago, won reelection as the civilian president. Egypt continued to work on its new administrative capital, outside Cairo.
The Reiwa era of 'beautiful harmony' is due to begin next month. It seems we all have some work to do.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
How 2018 ended and 2019 began
In America, the Democrats regained control of the House. A quarter of the government is shut down while they and Trump engage in a battle of wills over whether the border wall will be funded. Meanwhile, newly elected "democratic socialists" propose a Green New Deal (Ocasio-Cortez) and impeachment now (Tlaib). In Europe, the gilets jaunes took to the streets in France every weekend, Brexit negotiations kept limping along, and the AfD was the only major German party not to have its leaders doxxed in a big Twitter leak.
China found its phone manufacturer Huawei ("Chinese achievement"), which leads the world in 5G technology, attacked in the West as a security risk. CFO and founder's daughter Meng Wanzhou was detained in Canada for trading with Iran, quantum genius and venture capitalist Zhang Shoucheng was declared dead from suicide, and a Dutch supplier of chip-etching technology had a factory gutted by fire, all within a few days.
In India, Stalin and Gandhi united to beat Modi in three state elections (that's Tamil politician M.K. Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi). But BJP stalwart Subramaniam Swamy still thinks they can win nationally in May, if they emphasize Hindutva (Ayodhya temple) and anti-corruption. Look for UP chief minister "Yogi" to be a star campaigner.
Next door in prospering Bangladesh (clothing supplier to the world), Hasina's Awami League crushed the opposition at the polls, after first crushing them in the courts. Pakistan jailed former PM Nawaz Sharif - he joins Brazil's Lula and Bangladesh's Khaleda Zia as an imprisoned former leader - who just five years ago presided over Pakistan's embrace of China's new silk road. But no doubt China can do business with Imran too, in a way concordant with the 11 priorities of his New Pakistan.
In the Middle East, Turkey and Syria are on the mend, while Saudi Arabia and Iran have been weakened (by the Khashoggi affair, by the return of American sanctions); perhaps that's why there are now peace talks about Yemen. Qatar left OPEC; it would be more significant if Iran left too. The commander of the US fifth fleet, which would control any blockade of Iran, was found dead in his Bahrain residence; and Mad Dog Mattis quit as Pentagon chief, perhaps because Trump wants America out of Afghanistan as well as out of Syria.
Brazil and Mexico traded places - Mexico got a left populist (Amlo), Brazil got a right populist (Bolsonaro). Bolsonaro has been compared to the Philippines' Duterte, but he has to work with the legislature, which is also full of new faces. For Brazilians, whether or not they specifically view the military era as a golden age, the important thing is that they have a fresh start, with which to tackle crime and corruption.
China found its phone manufacturer Huawei ("Chinese achievement"), which leads the world in 5G technology, attacked in the West as a security risk. CFO and founder's daughter Meng Wanzhou was detained in Canada for trading with Iran, quantum genius and venture capitalist Zhang Shoucheng was declared dead from suicide, and a Dutch supplier of chip-etching technology had a factory gutted by fire, all within a few days.
In India, Stalin and Gandhi united to beat Modi in three state elections (that's Tamil politician M.K. Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi). But BJP stalwart Subramaniam Swamy still thinks they can win nationally in May, if they emphasize Hindutva (Ayodhya temple) and anti-corruption. Look for UP chief minister "Yogi" to be a star campaigner.
Next door in prospering Bangladesh (clothing supplier to the world), Hasina's Awami League crushed the opposition at the polls, after first crushing them in the courts. Pakistan jailed former PM Nawaz Sharif - he joins Brazil's Lula and Bangladesh's Khaleda Zia as an imprisoned former leader - who just five years ago presided over Pakistan's embrace of China's new silk road. But no doubt China can do business with Imran too, in a way concordant with the 11 priorities of his New Pakistan.
In the Middle East, Turkey and Syria are on the mend, while Saudi Arabia and Iran have been weakened (by the Khashoggi affair, by the return of American sanctions); perhaps that's why there are now peace talks about Yemen. Qatar left OPEC; it would be more significant if Iran left too. The commander of the US fifth fleet, which would control any blockade of Iran, was found dead in his Bahrain residence; and Mad Dog Mattis quit as Pentagon chief, perhaps because Trump wants America out of Afghanistan as well as out of Syria.
Brazil and Mexico traded places - Mexico got a left populist (Amlo), Brazil got a right populist (Bolsonaro). Bolsonaro has been compared to the Philippines' Duterte, but he has to work with the legislature, which is also full of new faces. For Brazilians, whether or not they specifically view the military era as a golden age, the important thing is that they have a fresh start, with which to tackle crime and corruption.
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