Coming events

In April, with Trump bombing Syria during his mini-summit with Xi, it looked like the new polarity of the world might clearly be China versus America, with Russia in the Chinese bloc by default. The Russian press rumored that Trump and Putin might meet (in Finland?) this month, but the government has dismissed that idea.

There are several elections looming in second-tier powers. But I would nominate the forthcoming Belt-and-Road summit in China, to be the month's main event. Yes, such events (the Chinese Internet Summits also come to mind) are highly scripted and they're all about what a genius Xi is, but they are also milestones in the transformation of China into a true peer of America.

As for the elections... I think Britain and Iran will confirm the status quo. So will France if they choose Macron. Volatile South Korea is the wildcard, if Moon Jae-il does get in.

Elsewhere in the democratic world, let's note Turkey's presidential referendum, Jakarta's election of a mayor backed by Islamists, BJP by-election victories and a focus on West Bengal next. And Trump had his "100 days" rally.

Sea power

While the world struggles to interpret this wave of American military actions, let me note that they come from all the world's major oceans. The cruise missile attack on the Syrian air force came from the Mediterranean, an arm of the Atlantic. The US military in Afghanistan, where the "MOAB" bomb was used against Islamic State, is supplied from the Indian Ocean via Pakistan. And those carriers now headed to the Korean peninsula to deter a Kim Jong Nuke test, are coming from the Pacific. America inherited hegemony over the world's oceans from Britain, as any Russian geopolitical theorist could tell you, and it hasn't relinquished that hegemony yet.