Monday, February 20, 2017
The new normal II
With Flynn gone, it appears to me that Pence, Mattis, Tillerson... are the real government now. I expect them to implement the essentials of Trump's program - border control, a new realism in national security, economic nationalism. And Trump himself remains in place as icon of the movement that he led; still good for rallying the people and shaming the press.
Friday, February 17, 2017
France is next
Technically the Netherlands is next - general election on March 15, whereas France's presidential election will occur in late April, with a final runoff in May if necessary.
But for me, the big hint that the secret forces on both sides of this 'nationalism vs globalism' battle are refocusing on France, even as the outcome in America remains in doubt, was a minor event: Julian Assange creating a personal Twitter account, in addition to that of Wikileaks; and for his background image, a few frames from the famous French comic "Asterix". To me, that signals an intention to be involved with what happens in France.
It has been remarked that a Trump victory in America is a strategic win for Russia, even if bitter institutional resistance prevents Trump from cooperating with Putin, because official America is now busy fighting itself rather than mobilizing against Russian actions in Syria and Ukraine in a unified fashion.
This presents an updated paradigm for interpreting the outcome in France. Macron the Rothschild banker appears to be the favorite candidate of the Atlanticist establishment. If he gets in, the supranational institutions may be preserved.
But if Le Pen gets in - she's a Eurosceptic, a Russophile, an opponent of Islamization. Even if the French institutions resist her agenda - and surely they will - it will again force institutions like NATO and EU to turn inwards, meaning that they have less attention and energy available for expansion.
But for me, the big hint that the secret forces on both sides of this 'nationalism vs globalism' battle are refocusing on France, even as the outcome in America remains in doubt, was a minor event: Julian Assange creating a personal Twitter account, in addition to that of Wikileaks; and for his background image, a few frames from the famous French comic "Asterix". To me, that signals an intention to be involved with what happens in France.
It has been remarked that a Trump victory in America is a strategic win for Russia, even if bitter institutional resistance prevents Trump from cooperating with Putin, because official America is now busy fighting itself rather than mobilizing against Russian actions in Syria and Ukraine in a unified fashion.
This presents an updated paradigm for interpreting the outcome in France. Macron the Rothschild banker appears to be the favorite candidate of the Atlanticist establishment. If he gets in, the supranational institutions may be preserved.
But if Le Pen gets in - she's a Eurosceptic, a Russophile, an opponent of Islamization. Even if the French institutions resist her agenda - and surely they will - it will again force institutions like NATO and EU to turn inwards, meaning that they have less attention and energy available for expansion.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Analogies
In this moment when the anti-Trump forces have claimed their first scalp, an unexpected Soviet analogy presents itself: Khrushchev! According to Wikipedia, after the Politburo overthrew him, he told a friend:
"Let them cope by themselves. I've done the main thing."
"Let them cope by themselves. I've done the main thing."
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