The oil weapon

Without knowing the details... I find it plausible that the current drop in oil prices is the work of America and Saudi Arabia, trying to weaken Russia and Iran.

And I wanted to record a thought - that if this is indeed economic warfare directed against Russia, it shows the remarkable viciousness of the hatred of Russia and Putin currently possessing western elites.

I say this because, when I read Russian and pro-Russian commentary, I sometimes see people saying that western elites have become insane and unhinged in their attitudes to Russia, that there is an intense campaign of demonization of Putin underway, and so forth.

For my part, I certainly get exasperated by the hypocrisy and ignorance of what's being written about Russia by western pundits. But it's hard to gauge what the western elites are actually feeling and thinking, whether they are sober or unhinged, etc.

So here, the use of the "oil weapon" seems like an important datum. To me, it feels consistent with the idea that the powers-that-be in the west, really have lost the capacity to negotiate or compromise with Russia, that they are pursuing a maximalist strategy of seeking to either subjugate or wound Russia.

I find that personally alarming, because when has that ever worked? Are these people really hoping for a replay of 1989-1991? They should watch out that their own house of cards doesn't fall first.

G20: the protesters

"THERE'S MORE TO LIFE THAN PLAYING MONOPOLY!" says the sign.

G20: The delegates

I was standing in the Queen St mall and saw three men in very dark suits taking selfies. I approached them. Our dialogue was something like this:

-- You must be G20 delegates.

-- We're from Turkey.

-- Oh! Foreign minister Davutoglu was just giving a talk...

-- He's the prime minister now.

-- Well... I lose track - there's Gul, and Erdogan... but great to meet someone from Turkey...

(One shakes my hand, then they all head off.)

Argentina 2014

It looks like the president of Argentina won't make it to Brisbane for the G-20 meetup, because of health concerns. Given the headline topic of this blog, this might be a good opportunity to note that Argentina is possibly engaged in a sovereign mini-default at the moment. I say 'possibly' because the declarations that the country is in default have come from ratings agencies.

I found this article to be relatively plausible as a description of the situation. The 'partial default' is actually due to a decision by an American judge. Argentina has deposited money with an American bank, which is meant to be paid to some of its lenders, but the judge has blocked the transfer of the money, until Argentina agrees to pay 100% of its debt to certain holdout lenders from the 1990s. (What Argentina wants to do, is to instead renegotiate the debts, so that all the old lenders only get a certain percentage of what they are nominally owed, like maybe 30%.)

Allow me here to express my puzzlement that governments borrow at all - more specifically, puzzlement that most governments do it. Isn't taxing their own populations enough?

G-20 in town

The G-20 will be paying me a visit next month, so I decided to apply for media accreditation. The preceding post was part of the application process.

update, 29 October: "Your application has been reviewed by the G20 Taskforce and unfortunately has not been approved... There are space limitations within the International Media Centre and therefore priority is given to those who cover economics, finance and political issues from broadcasting networks and news agencies."

Letter of Assignment

To whom it may concern:

This letter of assignment confirms that I am the Defaultonomics Blog's correspondent for the G20 2014 meetings, tasked to cover any and all aspects of the process leading to the Brisbane Action Plan.

Mitchell ___
"Defaultonomics" blog owner and administrator
((signature was here))